Monetary transmission and equity markets in the EU

We assess the role of equity markets in the transmission of monetary policy in the EU. We use a structural VAR model based upon the models of Kim and Roubini [2000] and Brischetto and Voss [1999] and we find that there are differences in monetary policy transmission across our sample of countries. The largest output losses following a monetary shock are seen in a core of euro area countries: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, and Germany. Germany also displays the largest response of prices and is followed by Austria and Finland. Variance decompositions also suggest that the bank based core euro area countries are different from market based countries. As regards the channels of transmission we find no evidence to suggest an equity wealth effect channel in the euro area and only circumstantial evidence for the UK. We do, however, find that those countries that use equity finance (the UK and the Netherlands) suffer smaller output losses following a monetary shock indicating that a bank lending channel is less likely to be present in these countries.

The potential of a small model

This CPB Discussion Paper highlights potential uses of simple, small models where large traditional models are less flexible. (updated 22/12/2011). We run a number of experiments with a small two variable VAR model of GDP growth and unemployment with both quarterly and yearly data. We compare the forecasts of these simple models with the published forecasts of the CPB and we conclude that there is not much di erence. We then show how easy it is to evaluate the usefulness of a given variable for forecasting by extending the model to include world trade. Perfect knowledge of future world trade growth would help considerably but is obviously not available at the time the forecasts were made. The available world trade data doesn't improve the forecasts. Finally we also show how quick and exible measures of the output gap can be constructed.

Asymmetric Monetary Transmission in EMU: The Robustness of VAR Conclusions and Cecchetti’s Legal Family Theory

We review studies on monetary transmission in the EU countries using the VAR approach and analyse why they often lead to divergent outcomes. Firstly, we estimate 43 VAR models across ten EU countries and compare the robustness of the ranking of the magnitudes of the price and output responses. The main specification differences between the VAR models are the use of two different sample periods; the inclusion of additional variables; and the use of recursive, long run, and structural identification schemes. Secondly, we calculate rank correlations between the output and price responses of a recursive VAR and a structural VAR to the financial structure indicators used by Cecchetti (1999), who argued that legal systems cause financial structure, which in turn causes asymmetric transmission. In contrast to Cecchetti, we find that there is little correlation.monetary transmission, VAR models, EMU

Macroeconomic resilience in a DSGE model

We use the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of Altig et al. (2005) to analyse the resilience of an economy in the face of external shocks. The term resilience refers to the ability of an economy to prosper in the face of shocks. The Altig et al. model was chosen because it combined both demand and supply shocks and because various market rigidities/imperfections, which have the potential to affect resilience, are modelled. We consider the level of expected discounted utility to be the relevant measure of resilience. The effect of market rigidities, eg. wage and price stickiness, on the expected level of utility is minimal. The effect on utility is especially small when compared to the effect of market competition, because the latter has a direct effect on the level of output. This conclusion holds for the family of constant-relative-risk-aversion-over-consumption utility functions. A similar conclusion was drawn by Lucas (1987) regarding the costs of business cycles. We refer to the literature that followed Lucas for ideas for how a DSGE model might be adjusted to give a more meaningful analysis of resilience. We conclude that the Altig et al. DSGE model does not produce a relationship between rigidities and the level of output and, hence, does not capture the effect of inflexibility on utility that one observes colloquially.

Evaluating CPB's published GDP growth forecasts; a comparison with individual and pooled VAR based forecasts

We compare the accuracy of our published GDP growth forecasts from our large macro model, SAFFIER, to those produced by VAR based models using both classical and Bayesian estimation techniques. We employ a data driven methodology for selecting variables to include in our VAR models and we find that a randomly selected classical VAR model performs worse in most cases than the Bayesian equivalent, which performs worse than our published forecasts in most cases. However, when we pool forecasts across many VARs we can produce more accurate forecasts than we published. A review of the literature suggests that forecast accuracy is likely irrelevant for the non-forecasting activities the model is used for at CPB because they are fundamentally different activities.

Financial transaction tax: review and assessment

We explore whether a Financial Transactions Tax (FTT) is likely to correct the market failures that have contributed to the financial crisis, to what extent FTT succeeds in raising revenues, and how the FTT compares to alternative taxes in terms of efficiency. We�find little evidence that the FTT will be effective in correcting�market failures. Taxing of transactions is not well targeted at�behaviour that leads to excessive risk and systemic risk creation. The empirical evidence does not suggest that the introduction of an FTT�reduces volatility or asset price bubbles. An FTT will likely raise�significant revenues and we estimate those revenues for the�Netherlands. In the short term, the incidence of the tax will be�chiefly on the current holders of securities. Ultimately, the tax will�be borne in part by end users, and we estimate the likely effects on�economic growth. When compared to alternative forms of taxation of the�financial sector, the FTT is likely less e� fficient given the amount�of revenues. In particular, taxes that more directly address existing�distortions, such as the current VAT exemption for banks, and the bias�towards debt financing, provide more efficient alternatives. �

The three stages of building and testing mid-level theories in a realist RCT: a theoretical and methodological case-example.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of social interventions are often criticised as failing to open the 'black box' whereby they only address questions about 'what works' without explaining the underlying processes of implementation and mechanisms of action, and how these vary by contextual characteristics of person and place. Realist RCTs are proposed as an approach to evaluation science that addresses these gaps while preserving the strengths of RCTs in providing evidence with strong internal validity in estimating effects. METHODS: In the context of growing interest in designing and conducting realist trials, there is an urgent need to offer a worked example to provide guidance on how such an approach might be practically taken forward. The aim of this paper is to outline a three-staged theoretical and methodological process of undertaking a realist RCT using the example of the evaluation of a whole-school restorative intervention aiming to reduce aggression and bullying in English secondary schools. DISCUSSION: First, informed by the findings of our initial pilot trial and sociological theory, we elaborate our theory of change and specific a priori hypotheses about how intervention mechanisms interact with context to produce outcomes. Second, we describe how we will use emerging findings from the integral process evaluation within the RCT to refine, and add to, these a priori hypotheses before the collection of quantitative, follow-up data. Third, we will test our hypotheses using a combination of process and outcome data via quantitative analyses of effect mediation (examining mechanisms) and moderation (examining contextual contingencies). The results are then used to refine and further develop the theory of change. CONCLUSION: The aim of the realist RCT approach is thus not merely to assess whether the intervention is effective or not, but to develop empirically informed mid-range theory through a three-stage process. There are important implications for those involved with reporting and reviewing RCTs, including the use of new, iterative protocols. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN10751359 (Registered 11 March 2014)